资本主义的本性往往能创造出令人无法置信的奇迹。当一些渴望买房而又缺乏信用积分和稳定收入的家庭发愁的时候，次贷方式出现了。好么，大家觉得这简直是雪中送炭，是美国梦的奇迹呀！有利可图，就是资本市场的金科玉律。于是自称为投资银行的一帮新兴帮会全力下注，在老江湖的商业银行的嘴里抢肉吃，十几年的功夫把次贷服务，次贷产品，以及基于次贷的衍生品，通过白道黑道，给美国人，乃至全世界带来了何止几万亿的商机！想不到吧？这么高的风险，一样有人敢上，而且越做越大！奇迹为什么叫奇迹？不服不行呀。

不过眼看这投行的后起之秀们志得意满，出道多年的MAIN街的老大们多少有点不爽,"出来混，早晚要还的”。“凭什么这帮人大把赚钱，我们手里的地盘被抢了不算，还要替他们背风险，顶罪？”终于有一天，信用危机出现的时候，MAIN街的老大可以发威了，带着人去踢投行的场子，砸他们的生意。WALL街的社团帮会回天乏术，一下子不仅子损兵折将，还得放下身段，求人家高抬贵手，拉自己一把。各个堂口，分会，稀里哗啦地就都归降了。五大WALL街帮会树倒猢狲散，他们手下成千上万的古惑仔们纷纷各显其能，急急忙忙找新的老大“照着“自己。一时间，换旗易帜，乱七八糟。

本来，黑道上的火并是常有的事，衙门里的人一般也懒得理会，现而今WALL街算是退出江湖了，当初他们的地盘基本都划归了MAIN街上的帮会了，世界却并不太平。MAIN街的老江湖们趁风点火，狮子大张嘴向“朝廷”和白道上的各个衙门要保护费和损失费，而且扬言不给钱就弄个社会大乱。这笔钱可不是小数目，给吧，连年用兵，如今国库早已空虚，可是不给吧，各黑帮早在N年钱就将触角伸到社会各个角落了，他们要是真翻脸撂挑子，那可是有可能民不聊生，国将不国滴！倒霉的“朝廷”的当家人W，眼看快退休了，偏偏碰上这么大的麻烦，一时间不知如何是好。他手下两位待定的接班人，黑白双煞，为了早日当权，各执己见也是打的不可开胶。其他“巡抚”，“道台”，“知县”在这个风口浪尖上，谁也不想当出头鸟，做替罪羊。于是第一“朝会”吵吵了半天，竟什么主意也没拿出来。

早朝一散，各为大人老爷私下交换意见：“以往其实也没少给黑帮保护费，咱各自也都吃了不少好处和利益，总不能真撕破脸吧？给50 是给，给5000不也是给么？反正“警匪共建和谐社会”早就是立国之本了，咱也不在乎多点少点的了。再说了，国库空虚怎么了？向民众和友邦各国借债呀！咱借债又不是头一回了，各代朝廷都有过呀，咱现在不也还在替前朝还钱呢么？虱子多了不痒！再说又不是明天就要还的，咱可以拆了东墙补西墙，慢慢拖着呗，没准等咱们这辈人过世了，还没开始还呢，嘿嘿，还债自有后来人！实在不行了，咱也上书要求暴力革命，谁让咱还钱咱就和谁打仗！您没看以前亚洲那姓蒋的，借了咱不少钱，他那么多抵押资产咱还没来得及没收呢，就被姓共的革了命然后就不认账了。”大家七嘴八舌一说，得了，第二次上朝，咱就批准给钱吧！

眼看尘埃快要落定了，江湖会消停了么？

我比较悲观,觉得经济大萧条几乎无法避免了.

回头看看次贷风暴的历史, toxic mortgage became MBS, MBS became CDO, CDO expanded to other CDO and hedge fund, then private equity and to beyond. 沿着这条路我们看到the collapse of residential mortgage borrowers, then Freddi Mac, Fa-Mei, then Bear, Lehman, Merrill, MS, then WaMu, then Wachovia. Then we start to see bank run on commercial banks (e.g. BOE). 我看人们对商业银行的DEPOSIT都不信任了,hedge fund, private equities and whoever have been doing the “Lend long, borrow short” biz may soon be crashed. 我觉得现在比2001 IT bubble 要掺, 消费水平连续掉了几个季度了.房价虽然已经掉了25%,但是还没到底,据说还要再来15%. 除了Mortgage是subprime, 其实整个美国的金融现在都是subprime.等到连hedge fund的钱都被挤兑了,真不知道美国的经济要掉到什么程度。

While the US is working hard on bailout, 中国似乎比较安静. 和美国在mortgage brokerage/hedge fund上缺少regulation and transparency 一样, 中国也有监管问题.但是不同的是北京的控制(或者掩盖)能力要强很多.所以,在全球政治战争不发生巨变的前提下,除了CIC们损失几百亿的投资,今后更大 的问题会是出口下降和FDI出逃.这两条会严重影响GDP,但是只要中国CP真叫上了劲,(象开奥运会似的),举倾国之力应该是能自保的.

欧洲就不好说了.ECB在FORTIS和DEXIA的事件上表现不错,但是这是因为这两家太大了,而且和多国政府的借贷关系过于复杂.其他firm未必会 得到政府这么多的支持. 很多西欧FI在东欧的mortgage asset一落千丈,不比USA好多少. 要命的是EU不象USA是一个政府.EU里面各国政府或多或少存在分歧,乱哄哄的在national level各持己见. 意大立的总理和财长就一直都不买EURO的帐,叫嚣要回到前EURO 时代.可以想象,如果几家德国银行要倒了,除非它们在整个EU都有生意,否则,ECB决不会想对FORTIS那样出手相救因为它无法说服其他国家的财长去 替德国人负债买单.那么,下一步的欧洲可能会出现整个政治体制和经济制度上的变革.EMU会不会解体我不知道,但是绝对不会象美国选个新总统那么简单.

乱世呀, 刚刚过去的九月是动荡的,而今后的半年到一年也许会是划时代的.

The market keeps volatile for quite a while but did not shock me too much until Sunday night when i saw Bear Sterns melt. How could JP Morgan jump on the table so quickly? $2/share, OMG, how much does BS HQ property in NYC worth? This is not a merger, it is a blood-sucking, unprecedented! Well, it says by last Friday, BS cash position was down to barely $2 billion while it has billions repo borrowing due in the next day. Let's imagine if BS went default on Saturday, what will the investors do? Bank run and cash out most of their bonds/lending? That might crash the $4.5 trillion repo market first then trigger a multi-layer trauma: equities, particularly finance sector, plunges; then debt capital market; then......From this perspective, JP did his due to bail the street.

In Toronto, rumors started on Monday morning, re-org, layoff, spread all over the place. Looking out of my window, i see raindrops and the cloudy sky, will tomorrow be a sunny day?

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Today is the first working day since we moved to another building. The space is really packed here and the light is not as bright as before. However, i got a sort of window view so at least there is something changed for good. There are many other groups on this floor, more convenient for networking, actually i did get to know a couple of new people just in the morning.

Now it will take 5 extra minus walking to Union Station. Well, just 5 minus huh? That does make a lot difference in a snowy Canadian winter day if you know what i am talking about. Seriously, those 5 minus could have frozen my butt off. This year, in particular, Toronto got a lot snow, i mean really a lot! Although it is March already, there are about 40+cm snow in my yard. So i guess the only way to remedy my little commute between Union Station and the office is to get another position in the bank and move my ass out of here ASAP, hahah...

The whole morning was unbelievably busy. By lunch time, i barely moved from my chair and my eyes are so dry. It seems a number of groups in the bank are working on a same project without communicating each other, yah, tell me about it. And then the hilarity ensues, some how all the sudden i became the POC for this cross-function initiative. Let's see where that gonna lead to.

The market goes a bit soft today in the US and Canada. The major banks in Canada have shown a bit reluctance to fulfill their agreement on providing liquidity injections to save the ABCP market. The total ABCP volume in Canada is about $30 billions, and was going bad since mid-August last year when Coventree Inc. was hit. Today Desjardins Group, the largest credit union in the country,  just announced a $118 MM write down. When will the entire credit crunch finish? Months? Quarters?